Monday, February 07, 2005

A nuclear Iran is not the problem
Whatever happened to the theory of mutually assured destruction?

Quote:

No, the prevailing theory of nuclear deterrence today is far different. It sits snugly alongside George W's lectures on democracy rampant. It says that the only real superpower alone can be trusted to upgrade and hone its nuclear arsenal; that true safety means leaving everything to the White House. But why on earth should such arguments run in countries like Iran, which have no reason to hail American hegemony? Iran has nuclear enemies all around, as we've seen. Iran may well hunger after the respect now accorded to Pakistan. In theory - old theory - a Tehran bomb would only complete the regional balancing act. In theory - old theory - it would have stopped Saddam launching his hideous war. What's so worrying here There's an answer to that, naturally; a Tom Clancy-style spiel featuring terror groups, greedy scientists, berserk mullahs and the rest (basically cold war porridge re-heated for a new audience). Yet, in truth, it's a thin little theme. Is civil nuclear power fading from use? To the contrary, nuclear power is a continuing fact of 21st-century life that many poorer nations in search of development feel obliged to fund and acknowledge In sum, the current international block on nuclear proliferation isn't going to endure. It didn't stop Islamabad or Delhi. It won't, over time, stop central Asian republics from growing uneasy in their nuclear isolation, ringed by bomb-toting countries - or Damascus and Tehran from feeling permanently threatened by Israel's bomb. The critical difficulty, of course, is perspective. If you even write about Israel's bomb in public, you're deluged with emails saying it can never be given up. Never? Not even in the tranquil Middle East of Condoleezza Rice's present imaginings? No, never. It is the final seal on Israel's security. Why don't you Brits give up your bomb first, those Israelis ask angrily. And there's the rub. We could do exactly that. Like Germany, Japan, Australia, South Africa, we could walk away. But no British government has the guts. We like to be part of this club of safety's sturdy children. It gives us a certain muzzy status.

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