Tuesday, August 27, 2013

I had high hopes when Obama was elected, but now I don't believe that they are capable of pushing Netanyahu far enough to get a peace agreement that could realistically work.
That said, any agreement on a peace treaty would probably mean the fall of Israel's divided government and according to polls, even a peace treaty hugely favourable for Israel would have low chance to be accepted in a referendum that Netanyahu has said will decide its fate.
Abbas has promised a referendum too, so he can't utterly surrender and give Netanyahu everything that he wants. Abbas needs at least part of East Jerusalem and most of West Bank with land swaps and something for the refugees to get a peace agreement accepted in a referendum, and chances of that kind of peace treaty being accepted in a referendum in Israel is extremely low according to polls there.

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