Thursday, April 11, 2013

Obama probably won't be attacking al-Nusra front in Syria at this point, because any direct US action against al-Nusra Front inside Syria would be claimed to be pro- Baath regime by domestic and foreign opponents of the Obama administration.

When the current regime has fallen US can sent it's drones and missiles to do collateral damage without having seen giving indirect support to the Apartheid regime, but at this point it can just try to move behind the scenes to stop money and arms flowing from the Gulf despots to al-Nusra.

Syria or parts of it are in danger of becoming a staging ground for Sunni armed groups intent on "reconquest" of Iraq, destabilizing Iraq through re-invigorating the civil war and perhaps making Iraq's current government to intervene in Syria with Iranian help, opening up the possibility of a larger regional war.

Instead of some kind of new opening for US, this instead could force it to choose between Gulf despots and one single war raging at the same time in Iraq and Syria and spreading father out.

Al-Qaida in Iraq wants US to do something that will benefit al-Qaida, this message is the red cape a bullfighter is using against the bull. Al-Nusra Front is clearly acting as a bait here. The main prize isn't Syria for al-Qaida, it's still Iraq, and clearly al-Qaida wouldn't mind US becoming tied again to military operations in Iraq and possibly into a new Afghanistan just over the border in Syria.

Al-Qaida is still playing the long game.

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